Child Slavery A Persecution of the Poor and Helpless: MORE CYCLES OF COVID-19 LIKELY WITHOUT NEW APPROACH SAY RESEARCHERS

Monday, 20 April 2020

MORE CYCLES OF COVID-19 LIKELY WITHOUT NEW APPROACH SAY RESEARCHERS

UPDATED: A researcher in Theoretical Neurobiology said that "without a new approach" we may see many more cycles of Covid-19. Dr Rosalyn Moran of King's College London said the current restrictions have given us breathing room to bring the levels of infection to a manageable level and if we keep our reproduction cases below one, this cycle should end in mid- June, with hundreds of manageable cases by the end of May. Based on her models, she said, there could be an estimated 1,200 deaths in Ireland by the end of this cycle. However, she stressed that these are all mathematical models and "none of this is inevitable". Speaking on RTÉ's Today with Sean O'Rourke, Dr Moran said measures introduced in Ireland have been successful and testing will be important in future.

Dr Moran said the worst- case scenario is that this situation could continue for up to two years.

It comes as Minister for Health Simon Harris warned that allowing complacency to set in, in efforts to combat Covid-19, could be disastrous and potentially fatal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/china-calls-for-stronger-testing-regime-to-detect-coronavirus-idUSKBN22201Z

In a video message on Twitter, the minister said the progress made by the Irish people could be undone. Testing of staff and residents in nursing home will continue this week as the focus remains on extinguishing and preventing outbreaks in long term residential care. There are encouraging signs that the situation in Ireland is stabilising.
UPDATE:

Monday, April 20, 2020 - 06:05 PM

It has been announced that 77 more people in Ireland diagnosed with Covid-19 have died - the highest number in a single day.

The total of coronavirus-related deaths in the Republic now stands at 687, according to the National Public Health Emergency Team.

There are now more than 15,652 people in the country with the virus with the announcement of 687 new confirmed cases.

Thirteen people died in the North today of the coronavirus.

North reports another 13 Covid-19 deaths as minister claims 'social distancing is working'

Useful information

The HSE have developed an information pack on how to protect yourself and others from coronavirus. Read it here

Anyone with symptoms of coronavirus who has been in close contact with a confirmed case in the last 14 days should isolate themselves from other people - this means going into a different, well-ventilated room alone, with a phone; phone their GP, or emergency department;

GPs Out of Hours services are not in a position to order testing for patients with normal cold and flu-like symptoms. HSELive is an information line and similarly not in a position to order testing for members of the public. The public is asked to reserve 112/999 for medical emergencies at all times.

ALONE has launched a national support line and additional supports for older people who have concerns or are facing difficulties relating to the outbreak of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) in Ireland. The support line will be open seven days a week, 8am-8pm, by calling 0818 222 024

Read:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-simon-harris-fears-air-of-complacency-creeping-in-1.4233145

https://www.independent.ie/

https://www.bbc.com/news

https://www.reuters.com/news/world

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/covid-19-lockdown-four-experts-explain-how-it-could-and-should-be-ended-994971.html

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However, Mr Harris warned against complacency in his video posted on social media. He said it would not take much to reverse the progress made and people relaxing their interpretation of staying at home or social distancing could be a disaster and potentially fatal.

Testing of staff and residents in all nursing homes will continue this week, with 4,000 tests carried out over the weekend. The aim is to stop current outbreaks and prevent cases in the 60% of nursing homes, currently free of the virus. The Health Service Executive said in a briefing there was now no backlog of people waiting to have their tests processed.

It said it was continuing to pursue all options to source personal protective equipment in a market where it was like "gold dust" and other countries were trying to outbid Ireland for orders. Normally, schools would reopen today after the Easter holidays. Mr Harris said this would not happen even on a partial basis unless and until public health experts deemed it to be safe.

Yesterday, the Department of Health confirmed it had been notified that 39 more people had died with Covid-19, bringing the overall death toll here to 610. A further 445 new cases of coronavirus have been diagnosed. In addition, there were 48 cases of Covid-19 from the backlog of tests at the laboratory in Germany, bringing the total additional cases to 493. There are now 15,251 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the Republic of Ireland.

Around 80% of cases of Covid-19 will be a mild to moderate illness, close to 14% have severe disease and around 6% are critical. Generally, you need to be 15 minutes or more in the vicinity of an infected person and within 2 metres of them, to be considered at-risk, or a close contact. The latest figures from the HSE show that as of 8pm last night there were 837 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in acute hospitals around the country. The highest number of patients are in the Mater Hospital, where there are 101 patients with Covid-19, followed by Beaumont with 99 patients, Tallaght with 83, and St James's with 81.

Outside Dublin, University Hospital Limerick has the highest number of people with Covid-19 with 40 patients. Cavan General Hospital has 36 and Letterkenny University Hospital has 35. UHL also has 36 suspected cases of Covid-19, the highest number of suspected cases in the 29 acute hospitals.

According to the figures from the HSE's Daily Operations Update for Acute hospitals, there are 140 Covid 19 patients in critical care beds. And there are 142 critical care beds available. Ninety-one patients with confirmed cases of the virus are on ventilators and 11 patients are being ventilated who are suspected to have Covid-19. The figures show there were three deaths in critical care in the previous 24 hours - two confirmed cases and one suspected case. The number of hospital admissions rose slightly yesterday by 0.6% after falling for the previous three days.

The growth rate in new cases reported by Irish laboratories is the lowest yet at 3.8%. Call for action plan to provide additional care and treatment in nursing homes. A consultant for infectious disease at the Mater Hospital has said that widespread testing for Covid-19 in nursing homes and residential facilities is "a good start" but needs to be linked to rapid treatment and contact tracing.

Dr Jack Lambert said there is a need for an action plan to provide additional care and treatment for residents and staff in these facilities and staff from acute hospitals need to be re-deployed quickly to boost treatment plans. He said "boots on the ground" are needed as many nursing homes are under-resourced with staff and expertise and clusters of the virus continuing to emerge.

Call for bulking up of ICU bed capacity

The Dean of the Joint Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine of Ireland said the low number of intensive care unit beds is an ongoing problem that must be addressed.
Dr John Bates, an intensive care consultant at University Hospital Galway, said groups have been lobbying for 15 years to get something done about the low number of ICU beds and political will is now needed to attack and resolve the problem.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, he said the coronavirus outbreak brought everyone's attention to the problem and it was very heartening to see everyone involved in bulking up ICU capacity, but added that we must now maintain and build on the current enhanced capacity.
He said that this increased capacity was mainly achieved through the re-deployment of staff from theatre but pointed out they will have to go back to their old roles soon, because there is a lot of time sensitive surgery that will have to start up again.
Dr Bates said that there will be an ongoing requirement for Covid-19 patients, in addition to normal business.
Dr Bates said that the majority of patients in ICU in University Hospital Galway are no longer coronavirus patients but are suffering from a range of problems.
He said that this is in contrast to just two weeks ago, when the majority of ICU patients had Covid-19.
Dr Bates said that it is a relief to see other patients presenting because there was a concern that they were staying away from hospital, despite needing help.
ENDS:

Additional reporting: Orla O'Donnell

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