IRELAND:
A News Blog About National and International Social Justice Matters
Saturday, 18 April 2020
CONFUSION AS NEW GRAPH SHOWS DAILY DEATHS FROM COVID-19 HAS HALVED WITHIN THE PAST TEN DAYS
Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan has produced a new graph
that shows a different story about the number of daily deaths in Ireland from
Covid-19 to date. The graph showed that in reality- the number of daily deaths
from Covid-19 in Ireland has halved since peaking ten days ago. He explained
that what the National Public Health Emergency Team reports on a daily basis,
is the number of deaths notified to them on any particular day rather than the
numbers who actually died on that day. He said that it can take a few days or
even longer before any particular death is actually notified to them. The new
graph depicts the pattern of daily deaths that actually took place when the
real timing of when the deaths occurred is accounted for.
This new analysis paints a very different picture to that
suggested by the figures published to date. It shows that daily deaths actually
peaked ten days ago on 7 April at 39 deaths, although the reported total
that day was 36.
It also reveals that broadly for three weeks before
10 April, the daily reported death toll under-represented the reality of
how many people really died each day. But in the past week, the daily reported
total has been over-representing the actual number of deaths that occurred -
some days by quite a lot.
The number of deaths officially reported for Friday 17
April is 44, the highest yet. But in reality, only 20 of those deaths
actually occurred on Friday. The rest could properly have been allocated to
earlier dates.
However,
the chief theme of the briefing was a long interchange with Dr Holohan as to
how many confirmed cases there actually are after a report from the European
Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) suggested that Ireland’s
figure is 8,089, more than 1,000 greater than that being reported by NPHET. Three
numbers were given- all of which Dr Holohan insisted were accurate.
Updated / Saturday, 18 Apr 2020 11:03
The new graph depicts the pattern of daily deaths that actually took place when the real timing of when the deaths occurred is accounted for
Officially,
NPHET said that 480 new cases had been recorded in the country, bringing the
overall total to 7,054. A second figure of 7,071, recorded by the Health
Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) as at midnight on Wednesday was also
delivered, followed by a final figure of 8,089. The larger figure includes
1,035 test results delivered from German laboratories and is the most
up-to-date one available, Dr Holohan said. He stressed that the various numbers
do not represent “ambiguity”, but rather the lower number is more accurate in terms
of the number of new cases being reported on a day-by-day basis. He said that
many of the tests being returned from Germany date from many weeks past.
“We’re
not trying to obscure them. Some of these tests go right back to the middle of
March. If we reported them it would give a false sense of how the disease is
increasing day on day,” Dr Holohan said. The cumulative number of cases does
not inform NPHET planning, he said. What does inform it are new cases, ICU
admissions, and “unfortunately, the number of deaths”. In terms of ICU
admissions, the number of patients currently receiving critical care is 157,
while 62 people have been discharged from intensive care to date, Dr Holohan
said. He said that 156 of the total number of deaths have either occurred in
nursing homes or following referrals from same to a hospital.
Asked
whether or not Ireland would have a functioning testing regime in place for the
revised restrictions deadline of May 5,
Dr Holohan said “that is certainly our intention”. Regarding the fact that many
of Ireland’s 49 testing centres appear to have ground to a halt, Dr Colm Henry,
the HSE’s chief clinical officer, said that this is because the capacity to
provide tests now outstrips demand since the threshold for testing was raised
to those with an underlying condition. Of the country’s largest such centre, at
Páirc Ui Chaoimh in Cork, Dr Henry said “anyone who has sought an appointment
there in recent days has gotten one”. Regarding the extension of nationwide
restrictions, Dr Holohan said that “we’ve saved many, many lives as a result of
society’s efforts with these measures over the past number of weeks”. However,
the chief medical officer once more could not be drawn as to the number of
people who are still waiting to get a test, or who are waiting for a result. “I
don’t have a precise number, but we’re not being evasive,” he said.
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